CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor: Strong retail sales gains in October after a slow September  

Retail sales bounced back strongly in October as the economy remained in good shape and consumers moved past concerns about a port strike and other issues that slowed September’s sales, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF).

“Healthy spending resumed in October as consumers continued to benefit from this year’s job gains and higher wages,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Inflation is mostly limited to services at this point and prices for some retail goods are actually falling. October sales have set the stage for a good start to the holiday shopping season.”

Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.74% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 4.13% unadjusted year over year in October, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with a decrease of 0.32% month over month and an increase of 0.55% year over year in September, when shoppers showed caution due to geopolitical tensions, a strike at East and Gulf Coast ports and the end of student loan relief programs.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobiles dealers and gasoline stations) was up 0.83% month over month in October and up 4.59% year over year. That compared with a decrease of 0.28% month over month and an increase of 0.94% year over year in September.

The year-over-year increase for total sales was the largest since 4.24% in November 2023 while the year-over-year increase for core sales was the largest since 4.76% in August 2023. Total sales were up 2.13% year over year for the first 10 months of 2024 and core sales were up 2.42%.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

October sales were up in seven out of nine retail categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, clothing and accessories stores and health and personal care stores. Sales were also up in seven categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Online and other non-store sales were up 1.84% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 19.38% year over year unadjusted.
• Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.57% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 8.56% year over year unadjusted.
• Health and personal care stores were up 1.45% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 8.35% year over year unadjusted.
• General merchandise stores were up 0.05% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 5.51% year over year unadjusted.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.87% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.76% year over year unadjusted.
• Building and garden supply stores were up 1.69% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.12% year over year unadjusted.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.58% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 1.87% year over year unadjusted.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.81% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 0.64% year over year unadjusted.
• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 2.7% month over month seasonally adjusted but down 1.23% year over year unadjusted.

To learn more, visit nrf.com/nrf/cnbc-retail-monitor.